Originally Posted by susiequilt
It will be real interesting to see if we have a bumper crop of cotton this year, will the prices come down to last years rate or only come down a little if at all!!!
You're not going to see prices come down, no matter what size the crop is. A bumper crop might slow down the rate of price increases, but prices will continue to increase, for several reasons; The demand for cotton goods is far outstripping the worldwide supply, and will be for the foreseeable future. Remember, quilting cotton is a very small fraction of the total cotton market. And -- there are a lot of other costs involved in cloth production and distribution, not the least of which are dramatically rising transportation costs and the costs of oil-based chemicals and dyes used in the production process.
Sourcing high-quality base goods is really getting problematic these days for manufacturers. The manufacturers of fine cotton quilting fabric have just a few choices now -- they can dramatically raise their prices and keep quality standards high, they can lower their quality standards and slow down price increases, they can print fewer and smaller lines, or they can start moving into other product lines. We've seen various manufacturers taking different of these choices. There are several threads on this board about some manufacturers lowering the quality of their products.
Stores of all types, B&M shops, online shops and giant corporate stores like WM and Joannes have the same choices; raise prices to match rising costs, maintain lower prices by offering lower quality goods, diversify offerings if possible, or move out of the fabric business.
As consumers we'll have the same type of choices; pay dramatically higher prices for quality goods, pay increasingly higher prices for WM-quality stuff, pay more for less choice, accept lower quality in return for more slowly increasing prices, or explore different fabrics and materials for our sewing needs. I guess the other option is to quit sewing.
As more and more stores close, you'll be able to buy closeout goods at reasonable prices if you shop around, but this won't last forever -- eventually those sources will be exhausted and you'll have fewer and fewer choices on where to buy. Some shops that deal in the highest quality goods and that maintain their standards will survive but only if they have loyal customer bases with clients that have the money to pay higher prices.
Another thing to remember is that the prices you're seeing in stores for new goods now reflect the wholesale prices locked in 6-12 months ago by the retailer -- there have been dramatic price increases since then in the goods we're receiving now, and again for the goods we're ordering for delivery in the next 6-12 months. Those prices, on the highest quality goods, are at least a dollar/yd higher than what we paid last year at this time.
It's getting ugly...