For a good inticator watch the futures market on cotton. There is a drop showing for the end of the year .. still higher than last years price .. note the drop as the growing season progresses in the Northern Hemisphere
There was a slight down tick in the futures market but that is not uncommon after a record high , and some cash out their profits.
http://news.tradingcharts.com/future...es/Cotton.html
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/cont...tml?r=NYBOT_CT
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agri...ts/cotton.html
The best overall outlook report
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/...es-surge-over-$2-on-tight-supplies-36562-3-1.html
My best guess is that we at least one full year from any reduction hitting the retail cycle. and the worst is not yet been realized in the full chain. The real question is did the manufactures buy futures and at what price?