MSRP on top-quality quilting fabric that's now coming in to the shops is 12.95/yd and even higher in many cases. Large dealers don't always carry the top lines -- in many cases the top lines are reserved for quilt shops only and aren't sold to big online dealers or chains. Some small online stores do sell for less on first-run, top-quality fabrics.
Some shops will average prices in their shops, marking up the older fabrics in order to keep the prices down on the newer, higher priced fabrics. Others will put a more honest price on the newer fabrics and leave the older ones at the old prices.
Mid-quality and low-quality fabrics can be purchased for less. Some popular lines have been reducing quality due to the very high prices they now have to pay for, and the shortage of certain types of base stocks.
Since fabric prices are going up so dramatically, a lot of shops are closing, unable to compete with large online outlets like Amazon.com (who owns fabric.com) who are willing to use predatory pricing to drive competition out of business. These businesses also have huge advantages in shipping product due to their ability to get very favorable pricing from UPS and other shippers.
Thus you will find a lot of store closing sales out there, or other sales because of critical cash-flow situations in smaller shops and smaller online stores. So a lot of bargains are to be had out there.
Re: precut fabrics -- generally the smaller the cut, the more per-yard you'll pay.
The main thing, as a new quilter you should learn all you can about fabric quality. Generally, when you pay low prices, you'll get low quality, and vice-versa, but this isn't always true. You can find bargains and sales on very good-quality fabric if you look around and shop sales. The fabric you're getting might be one or a few years older, but if it's top-quality, it'll still be top-quality when it's marked down.
Learn the difference between the good stuff and the junk, and that way you won't put a lot of time and effort into making projects you'll be unhappy with after they're completed. I'm a firm believer in the theory that if you're going to put a lot of your own sweat and labor into a project, why use fabric that won't stand the test of time?
Go to good quilt shops, ask questions, and feel and touch the fabric. Talk to the store owner, they're usually the most knowledgeable. (Part-time clerks don't always make a study of the fabrics the way owners often do.) After you learn what makes a good-quality fabric, and you're going to buy, if you buy online ask for samples first if you're not sure.
And finally, welcome to the wonderful world of fabrics. Once you get hooked, look out! :-)