I think the term UFO can be interpreted differently by different people. In my mind I deem something a UFO as your 1st scenario. I have actually started the quilt, cut the fabric, maybe even pieced a few of the blocks then set it aside (with pattern and fabric designated for that top) and started a different project.
I have loads of my stash sorted for a "someday" quilt, kind of like my own kit. Some I have the pattern stashed away as well but that is always subject to change, I may come across a pattern I like better or is more well suited to the fabric or I may "cannibalize" some of the fabric I have set aside with others to use in a completely different quilt. If I haven't made specific cuts out of the fabric for a particular project I don't consider it a UFO. Oh and the change from WIP (work in process) to UFO is also subject to interpretation. But I consider it a WIP if I am actively working on it. Now some of my WIPS are pushing the envelope as I have been working on it for literally years. I have a hand applique project that is like that. I don't work on it always but it is definitely touched a few times a month.