I'll be honest, it's just plain hard to know. I've always had very good luck with cheap chalk, Roseart, as it doesn't have the binders in it to make it stick like the more expensive chalk. Also, I use blue wash away markers, and have never had a problem. I use Miracle Chalk (iron away version) sometimes, which has always worked very well for me.
I've heard using Crayola Washable Markers works well, but I haven't used them (many quilters do).
In testing, be sure you're testing on EXACTLY how that fabric will be in your quilt, meaning unwashed or washed, due to the chemicals used in processing. Then you will know how your detergent affects the outcome, and how the marking method you use works with the unwashed/washed fabrics.
I quilt for myself and charity, and never know how the charity tops come to me. Therefore, I only use the Roseart chalk on them, and use a good lint brush to remove it. I do have a longarm, which means the chalk markings will stay on better for me then they did when I used my Singer. For my Singer, I used a blue wash-away marker in order for it to stay on, or used paper to quilt the pattern through if I didn't want to mark it.
There simply isn't a single answer that's right for everyone in every situation. You will have to test several to see what works best for you on both a light and a dark quilt.
Good luck!