i would request a refund. she can only say no. it was her responsibility to send it with a confirmation number, everything i sell here,even if it is a $2.00 pattern gets a confirmation number.i do the same with ebay. confirmation is free if you use click and ship (USPS).
this happened to me on ebay, the girl did not get the package i sent, yet the confirm number said it was delivered. i asked her to check with her neighbors to see if it was left with them. after she did that, i gave her a refund.(around $10, for the item, i did not refund the shipping costs) she never left feedback. but i was ok with that. by the way, her feedback had no negatives, so i really think she did not receive it..
when you buy anything,tell them you want a confirmation number. pay the extra 45 cents.
so sorry this turned out the way it did for you..
(i use paypal also)